The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has released its Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook, updating its expectations for Canada’s housing market. While headlines have focused on declining home sales and softer prices, the report also highlights something buyers have not seen in years: a market with more choice, less competition, and greater negotiating power.
For anyone planning to buy a home in Abbotsford or the Fraser Valley, the latest forecast is less about worrying market conditions and more about understanding where opportunities may exist.
What CMHC Is Forecasting for 2026
CMHC now expects:
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457,200 home sales across Canada in 2026, compared to 470,314 in 2025.
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An average national home price of $675,200, down slightly from $679,543 last year.
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241,400 housing starts, compared with 259,028 in 2025.
While these figures represent a softer market than previously expected, CMHC also forecasts a gradual recovery beginning in 2027, with further improvement expected in 2028.
Why the Market Has Slowed
According to CMHC, several economic factors continue to influence housing demand:
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Ongoing economic uncertainty
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Slower population growth
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Higher borrowing costs
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Modest income growth
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Continued geopolitical and trade uncertainty affecting business investment and consumer confidence
Rather than creating a housing crash, these factors are contributing to a slower, more balanced market.
Why This Could Be Good News for Buyers
A slower market often creates opportunities that simply don’t exist during highly competitive periods.
Today’s buyers are more likely to experience:
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More homes available to choose from.
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Less pressure to make immediate decisions.
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Greater ability to negotiate price and contract terms.
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More time to complete inspections and due diligence.
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Fewer bidding wars than during the peak years.
For many households, this creates a far more comfortable buying environment than the fast-moving markets experienced just a few years ago.
What It Means for Fraser Valley Buyers
While CMHC’s forecast is national, many of the same themes are already visible throughout the Fraser Valley.
Recent Fraser Valley Real Estate Board market reports have consistently shown:
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Elevated inventory levels.
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Buyer-friendly market conditions.
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Improved affordability compared with previous years.
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Homes generally taking longer to sell than during the pandemic market.
For buyers who have been waiting for a more balanced market, today’s conditions may provide greater flexibility when comparing homes and negotiating offers.
Lower Prices Don’t Always Mean Waiting Pays
One of the biggest mistakes buyers make is assuming that any forecast of lower prices means they should delay purchasing indefinitely.
Housing decisions depend on far more than average national prices.
Factors such as:
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Mortgage interest rates
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Household income
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Available inventory
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Local market conditions
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Personal financial goals
often have a much greater impact on affordability than small year-over-year price movements.
CMHC’s forecast projects the national average home price to decline by less than 1% in 2026 before returning to modest growth in 2027. That represents a relatively modest adjustment rather than a major correction.
Sellers Still Have Opportunities
A balanced market doesn’t mean homes stop selling.
Well-priced, well-presented properties in desirable neighbourhoods continue to attract motivated buyers.
As competition among listings increases, successful sellers are focusing on:
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Accurate pricing
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Professional marketing
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High-quality photography
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Strategic timing
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Working with experienced REALTORS®
Preparation continues to matter more than ever.
Looking Beyond 2026
Although CMHC expects 2026 to remain relatively soft, its outlook becomes more positive over the following two years.
The agency forecasts:
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Gradual improvement in home sales during 2027.
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Modest price growth returning in 2027.
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Continued recovery through 2028.